Elections Forecaster, Political Risk Analysis for AI Models

Produce expert-authored political forecasting and research data that helps evaluate and improve AI models performing real-world political and financial analysis. Assignments require independent judgment based solely on a defined evidence cutoff, with conclusions documented as they would have been at that time.

• Write point-in-time political reports and forecasts covering elections, polling, and political-risk events.
• Develop and document directional assessments of polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanisms through which events may affect political and financial markets.
• Review AI-generated analyses and evaluate them against a high professional standard.

• Senior-level experience as an elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling or statistical-methodology specialist, or political-risk analyst.
• A demonstrated record of making live judgments on polling, win probabilities, or odds, rather than only retrospective commentary.
• Strong command of polling analysis and causal event analysis.
• Typically 8 or more years of directly relevant experience, or compelling evidence of equivalent performance.
• Relevant backgrounds may include national polling and election-forecasting organizations, major decision desks, senior analytics teams for presidential, Senate, or governor races, and political-risk teams at leading banks, funds, or advisory firms. Recognized organization experience is helpful but not required; direct experience and work-sample performance determine qualification.

This role is not suited to communications, journalism, or academic-only backgrounds without demonstrated experience in forecasting, polling, or probabilistic judgment.

All work must follow strict point-in-time discipline. Use only information available as of the stated cutoff, with no hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information.

Hourly engagement.

$150 to $250 per hour.